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Science
Tropical Cyclones (Atlantic Ocean – Global Warming Effects: Frequency, The Past Century) — Summary
via CO2Science.com
Have tropical storms and hurricanes of the Atlantic Ocean become more numerous over the past century, in response to what climate alarmists describe as unprecedented global warming? In an early attempt to answer this question, Bove et al. (1998)examined the characteristics of all recorded landfalling U.S. Gulf Coast hurricanes — defined as those whose eyes made landfall between Cape Sable, Florida and Brownsville, Texas — from 1896 to 1995. In doing so, they found that the first half of this period saw considerably more hurricanes than the last half: 11.8 per decade vs. 9.4 per decade, while the same was true for intense hurricanes of category 3 or more on the Saffir-Simpson storm scale: 4.8 vs. 3.6. In fact, the numbers of all hurricanes and the numbers of intense hurricanes both tended downward from 1966 to the end of the period investigated, with the decade 1986-1995 exhibiting the fewest intense hurricanes of the entire century. The three researchers concluded that “fears of increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico are premature.”
Noting that the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season was one of near-record tropical storm and hurricane activity, but that during the preceding four years (1991-94) such activity over the Atlantic basin was the lowest since the keeping of reliable records began in the mid-1940s, Landsea et al. (1998) studied the meteorological characteristics of the two periods to determine what might have caused the remarkable upswing in storm activity in 1995. In doing so, they found that “perhaps the primary factor for the increased hurricane activity during 1995 can be attributed to a favorable large-scale pattern of extremely low vertical wind shear throughout the main development region.” They also noted that “in addition to changes in the large-scale flow fields, the enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity has also been linked to below-normal sea level pressure, abnormally warm ocean waters, and very humid values of total precipitable water.” (more…)
The A to Z Climate Reality Check
Click to read the report
by Marc Morano / via ClimateDepot / December 7, 2011 /
Below is the Introduction to the report. Full report is available here.
INTRODUCTION:
Many of the proponents of man-made global warming are now claiming that climate change is worse than they predicted. According to an October 18, 2011 Daily Climate article, global warming activists claim that the “evidence builds that scientists underplay climate impacts” and “if anything, global climate disruption is likely to be significantly worse than has been suggested.”
But this exclusive Climate Depot exhaustive A-Z Climate Reality Check report on the scientific reality of the failure of man-made global warming shatters any such illusions that the climate is “worse than we thought.” As the real world evidence mounts that global warming claims are failing, the climate activists have ramped up predictions of future climate change impacts to declare that it “worse than we thought.” But a prediction or projection of 50-100 years into the future is not “evidence.” Recent scientific data and developments reveal that Mother Nature is playing a cruel joke on the promoters of man-made climate fears.
The scientific reality is that on virtually every claim — from A-Z — the claims of the promoters of man-made climate fears are failing, and in many instances the claims are moving in the opposite direction. The global warming movement is suffering the scientific death of a thousand cuts. This Climate Depot special report categorizes and indexes the full range of climate developments in a handy A-Z reference guide. The A-Z report includes key facts, peer-reviewed studies and the latest data and developments with links for further reading, on an exhaustive range of man-made global warming claims.
The Antarctic sea ice extent has been at or near record extent in the past few summers and the ice is expanding, the Arctic has rebounded in recent years since the low point in 2007, polar bears are thriving, sea level is not showing acceleration and is actually dropping, Cholera and Malaria are failing to follow global warming predictions, Mount Kilimanjaro melt fears are being made a mockery by gains in snow cover, global temperatures have been holding steady for a decade or more and many scientists are predicting global cooling is ahead, deaths due to extreme weather are radically declining, global tropical cyclone activity is near historic lows, the frequency of major U.S. hurricanes has declined, the oceans are missing their predicted heat content, big tornados have dramatically declined since the 1970s, droughts are not historically unusual nor caused by mankind, there is no evidence we are currently having unusual weather, scandals continue to rock the climate fear movement, the UN IPCC has been exposed as being a hotbed of environmental activists, former Vice President Al Gore is now under siege by his fellow global warming activists for attempting to link every bad weather event to man-made global warming and scientists from around the world continue to dissent from man-made climate fears at a rapid pace. (more…)
New Study: Climate Sensitivity Has Been Overestimated
Science / November 24, 2011
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1203513
- Report
Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
- Andreas Schmittner1,*,
- Nathan M. Urban2,
- Jeremy D. Shakun3,
- Natalie M. Mahowald4,
- Peter U. Clark5,
- Patrick J. Bartlein6,
- Alan C. Mix1,
- Antoni Rosell-Melé7
1College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331–5503, USA.
2Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, NJ 08544, USA.
3Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
4Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA.
5Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
6Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA.
7ICREA and Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.
- ↵*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: aschmitt{at}coas.oregonstate.edu
Abstract
Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
CO2 climate sensitivity ‘overestimated’ – BBC News
New study in Science shows climate sensitivity overestimated – WattsUpWithThat
Global Warming Forecasts ‘Exaggerated’ – The GWPF
The Climate World Began in 1979
by Steven Goddard / Real Science / November 15, 2011 /
No wonder so many climate scientists are hopelessly confused. They happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and they like to draw straight lines through sinuous phenomena.